Persistent temperature effects on agricultural productivity imply large climate change damages
Presented by:
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
Cornell University
Friday, September 25, 2026
12:00 pm-1:15 pm
Taylor-Hibbard Seminar Room (Rm103)
Climate change damages depend critically on how productivity responds to temperature shocks over time. Most existing work treats the effects of these shocks as either short-lived, implying small damages, or permanent, implying damages an order of magnitude larger. Here we explore intermediate dynamics for global agriculture and their implications for climate change damages. We find that a temperature shock lowers productivity for multiple years, with losses that deepen over time. This persistent productivity loss is associated with a short-lived output response coupled with a gradual and sustained rise in certain inputs (e.g. fertilizer, labor and feed). We find a similar pattern when analyzing U.S. agricultural productivity accounts. Climate change damage estimates that account for persistence imply substantial declines in global agricultural productivity, both historically and by the middle of the century.