The Health Cost of Unexpected Shocks: Hurricanes and Elderly Mortality
Presented by:
Renato Molina
Environmental and Resource Economics
University of Miami
Friday, October 17, 2025
12:00 pm-1:15 pm
Taylor-Hibbard Seminar Room (Rm103)
Extreme events often impose severe health costs when they arrive unexpectedly. This paper examines how forecast accuracy mitigates these impacts, using hurricanes as a natural experiment. Using county-level mortality data covering all US landfalling hurricanes between 2005 and 2022, we find that stronger wind exposure and forecast underpredictions both significantly increase elderly mortality, with effects persisting up to three months after landfall. A one m/s increase in wind speed raises deaths among individuals aged 85 and older by 1.6 per 100,000, while underestimating wind speeds by 8–10 m/s produces roughly 40 excess deaths per 100,000. We estimate more accurate forecast predictions generate between $27 to $57 million in counties exposed to hurricane-force winds.