Partisanship and Survey Refusal
Presented by:
Mark Borgschulte
Department of Economics
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Friday, September 6, 2019
12:00 pm-1:15 pm
Taylor-Hibbard Seminar Room (Rm103)
Survey refusal in the the Current Population Survey (CPS) has tripled over the last decade. This rise coincides with the emergence of political rhetoric, largely from the political right, questioning the accuracy and integrity of government statistics. We examine how support for the Tea Party and the Republican party have affected CPS refusal rates. Using state and metro vote shares or an individual-level model based on the longitudinal structure of the CPS, we find evidence consistent with a political cycle in response rates. Notably, refusal rates since 2014 exhibit polarization, with the fastest growth in refusals among those least likely to support Trump and the Tea Party. Evidence from an analysis which generates exogenous variation in Tea Party support using rain on the day of the first Tea Party rally suggests that exposure to anti-survey rhetoric decreases refusal rates, possibly due to a salience effect.