Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather
Presented by:
Derek Lemoine
Department of Economics
University of Arizona
Friday, May 3, 2019
12:00 pm-1:15 pm
Taylor-Hibbard Seminar Room (Rm103)
I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by recent empirical literature. I show that xed e ects estimators can exactly recover the e ects of climate only when agents' payo functions are in one of two classes. In other cases, xed e ects estimators can only bound the e ects of climate, with the direction of the bound determined by how past actions a ect the marginal bene t of current actions. Empirical work should begin controlling for forecasts in order to both expand and test the conditions under which it can recover the e ects of climate.
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