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Staff Paper No. 459 - Abstract

Cranberry Price Forecasting

Ed Jesse [evjesse@wisc.edu]

Staff Paper No. 459, March 2003, 12p.

Abstract

In 2000, rapidly-falling grower prices for cranberries led the cranberry industry to seriously consider invoking its federal marketing order for the first time since the early 1970s. The Cranberry Marketing Order permits volume control through producer allotments (grower delivery quotas) or handler withholding (processor set-asides).

Possible deployment of volume controls motivated interest in the probable price effects, in particular, what level of production (given inventories and projected imports) would yield an acceptable grower price. As the public member of the Cranberry Marketing Committee and as the Committee’s ad hoc staff economist, I agreed to develop a price forecasting model to shed light on this question.
Last updated on Thu, Jun 2, 2005 9:12am